A lot of buyers are asking the same question right now: Should I wait until interest rates drop before buying a condo in Ottawa?
It’s a fair question — and a complicated one. But the short answer might surprise you.

If you’ve been holding off, you’re not alone. Many would-be buyers have been sitting on the sidelines for the past year, hoping for better rates or more listings. But markets don’t freeze in time. The longer you wait, the more the dynamics shift — and not always in your favour.

Price vs. Payment

The common belief is that when rates fall, affordability will improve. But in real estate, it’s not that simple.

When borrowing costs come down, demand goes up — often fast. More buyers re-enter the market at once, and competition heats up. That means prices can rise even faster than the rate drop improves your payment.

In other words: you could end up paying more for the same condo later, even if your interest rate is technically lower.

Let’s look at an example.
If a $500,000 condo today costs you $3,200 a month with your current rate, a small rate drop might bring your payment to $2,900 — but if that same condo’s price jumps to $540,000 when everyone rushes back in, you’re right back where you started.

Inventory Is Quietly Shifting

Ottawa’s condo market is showing early signs of tightening. Developers have slowed construction in the last few years, and resale inventory is still moderate. That means the number of available listings won’t necessarily rise when rates fall — which gives active buyers the advantage now.

Well-priced units in desirable buildings — especially those in walkable neighbourhoods like Little Italy, Centretown, or Hintonburg — are already seeing stronger activity. Buyers who are pre-approved, confident, and ready to act are quietly locking in great deals while everyone else waits.

Timing Your Purchase Strategically

No one can predict the exact day the Bank of Canada will make its next move. But what you can do is prepare strategically so you’re ready to move when the right property appears.

Here’s how:

Get your pre-approval now. Lock in a rate hold for 90–120 days. If rates drop during that window, you can usually renegotiate down — but you’ll still be protected if they rise.
Track buildings you like. Watch which condos are sitting, which are selling, and how fast. That tells you more about the real market than headlines do.
Know your numbers. Ask your agent to break down what small rate or price changes actually mean for your monthly cost. Seeing it on paper takes the guesswork out of the equation.
Focus on long-term value. A great location, strong condo board, and solid resale potential matter far more than saving $100 a month on your payment.

The Bottom Line

Waiting for “perfect timing” sounds smart in theory. In practice, the perfect time is only clear in hindsight.

Ottawa’s market right now is calm enough to shop carefully but strong enough to reward smart moves. If you’re serious about buying, the best thing you can do is get informed, get ready, and make decisions based on your goals — not predictions.

Because when the next rate cut happens, the market won’t wait for you.

Thinking about buying a condo in 2025?
Start by exploring the city’s top neighbourhoods and current listings at mattrichling.com.